For decades, 83% of Australian investors bought established. The 2026 federal budget made that the wrong answer overnight. Here's why — and what the same suburb, same spec, head-to-head looks like now.
You've got $700k. Your parents bought established and made $1M. Your accountant says new build for depreciation. The 2026 federal budget changed which path keeps the tax shelters — and which one loses them. Three voices, one decision. Here's the structural answer.
Loses negative gearing and the 50% CGT discount. The investor pool that drove resale just halved. Owner-occupier territory now.
Full negative gearing preserved. $12–15k Year-1 depreciation. ~$10k stamp duty (land only). The only investor lane the budget kept open.
One block apart. Same beds, same baths, same garage. One is a 25-year-old brick veneer. The other is a wholesale turnkey package.
Each card below quantifies one driver of the gap between the two Park Ridge deals — and links to the deeper page on the underlying mechanic.
The classic Australian property orthodoxy. Pre-2026 it was correct. Post-2026 the budget split which path gets the tax shelters. Same logic, materially different outcome.
Land appreciates, buildings depreciate — so buy land. 83% of Australian property investors bought established for 30 years on this logic. Your uncle made $400k on a Bendigo weatherboard. Your parents' Western Sydney home tripled.
Pre-2026, the math worked: established negative-geared for the cashflow buffer, 50% CGT discount on the gain at exit. The orthodoxy was earned.
The 2026 federal budget kept negative gearing and the 50% CGT discount on new builds only. Established purchases lost both for new investors (grandfathered until mid-2027 for existing holdings).
Same property, same land, same suburb — but the post-tax cashflow on established now runs $290/week worse. The CGT gap at sale on a $300k gain runs $55k+. Over 10 years, the structural outcome diverges by ~$350k.
The orthodoxy didn't die. It just got rewritten. New build is the new "land + tax shelters" play. Same logic, the only path it still works on.
Same suburb. Same beds. Held for 10 years. Below is the all-in delta — depreciation refund, stamp duty, maintenance, cashflow drag, CGT treatment at exit. Assumes 5.5% pa growth for both, $120k investor income, 37% marginal rate.
All figures in 2026 dollars. Negative numbers are out-of-pocket cost.
| Lever | Established | New build |
|---|---|---|
| Purchase price | $685,000 | $716,900 |
| Stamp duty at settlement | - $23,400 | - $10,675 |
| Depreciation refund (10yr · 37%) | + $10,360 | + $43,290 |
| Maintenance + capex (10yr) | - $58,000 | - $11,500 |
| Post-tax cashflow drag (10yr) | - $200,200 | - $49,400 |
| Capital growth (5.5% pa, 10yr) | + $484,000 | + $506,500 |
| CGT on sale (treatment) | Full gain @ marginal | 50% discount preserved |
| Net CGT impact on growth | - $179,080 | - $93,703 |
| 10-year wealth outcome (after tax) | $33,680 | $384,512 |
Illustrative. Assumes 5.5% pa capital growth (10-year CoreLogic trailing for Logan LGA), $120k investor PAYG income, 37% marginal tax rate (incl. Medicare), 6.20% interest rate held flat for modelling, 88% LVR, rents indexed 3% pa, no refinance event. CGT modelled on a sale at the end of year 10: established is taxed on the full gain at the 37% marginal rate; new build retains the 50% discount (18.5% effective). Sale costs (agent + legal) not modelled — equivalent on both sides. Run your own numbers in the strategy session model →
Book a 30-minute strategy call. We'll plug your real income, savings and tax bracket into the same model above — and show you what a wholesale new build looks like in your numbers.